4/16/10 Mortgage Market Week-in-Review
April 19, 2010
What Did Interest Rates Do Last Week?
** based on Freddie Mac weekly average survey **
30-yr Fixed - Lower
Last Week: 5.07%
Previous Week: 5.21%
1yr Ago: 4.82%
15-yr Fixed - Lower
Last Week: 4.40%
Previous Week: 4.52%
1yr Ago: 4.48%
Jumbo Fixed (Average 30-yr Fixed)
Last Week: 5.50%
Previous Week: 5.50%
Highlight of Last Week's Major Economic Reports
The Federal Reserve continues to report that economic activity "increased somewhat" in 11 of the 12 districts with "some hiring activity" and inflation pressures "generally remained level" and "manufacturing activity increased." These conditions are supportive of the ongoing economic recovery, but one that still has not gained full steam.
Some good news include March's Retail Sales report, which reflected a 1.6% increase - surpassing all expectations. Some of the boost we've recently started to see in Retail Sales could be attributed to prices remaining overall flat. The Consumer Price Index, for one, didn't budge last month and has risen only 1.2% over the past year. This shows that - outside of food and energy prices - consumers are paying prices that are fairly close to what they did last year.
On the housing front, New Housing Starts rose by 1.6% last month, providing the best three-month run we've seen since August-October 2008. Not surprisingly, builders are starting to feel a bit more optimistic about what the next few months will have in store.
What to Look for This Week
The latest Home Sales figures will be the focal point of the week, as we all gather to see what last-minute flurry the soon-to-expire homebuyer tax credit will impose on the housing market. Will it or won't it? That's the question many are asking with regards to whether the tax credit will be extended or not.
Of other significance will be the Producer Price Index to highlight the most recent inflation trends.
Short-Term Rate Outlook
Relatively Stable
Stay Informed: What's in the News
"Austin Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.1%, Adds 4,600 Jobs" from Austin Business Journal
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2010/04/12/daily58.html?ed=2010-04-16&ana=e_du_pub
"Americans More Optimistic about the Economy, Says Poll" from CNN
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday morning indicates that 19 percent of the public now says that an economic recovery is underway.
"While that's not a great number, it's significantly higher than the 12 percent who felt that way in January," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Thirty-four percent of people questioned in the poll says the economy is still in a downturn, but that's dropped five points from the 39 percent who felt that way at the start of the year.
According to the survey, nearly half the public says that a recovery has not started but that conditions have stabilized. The 46 percent who said the economy's stabilized is down three points from January.
"Austin Foreclosure Filings Down, Market Expert Cautious" from Texas A&M Real Estate Center / Foreclosure Listing Service, Inc.
Foreclosure filings in the Austin area fell 22 percent over the past month, dropping from 1,451 to 1,139, according to Foreclosure Listing Service Inc. (FLS).
"This decline is welcomed news, but I must warn that one month's activity does not change a long-established trend," said George Roddy Sr., FLS president. "Foreclosure postings have been on the high end for some time now. In fact, for the past 16 consecutive months, posting activity has topped 1,000 each month in the Austin metro."
Roddy added that Uncle Sam might have played a role in the drop in filings.
"In six of the last ten years, Travis County foreclosure posting activity for May has been less than in April," he said. "I suspect that as some families have received an IRS tax refund, they have applied that toward their delinquent mortgages to save their homes."
Roddy said a more important factor to watch than month-to-month activity is the same month comparison from one year to the next.
"Over the last year, May's foreclosure posting activity in the Austin Metro dropped 11 percent," he said. "This was the first time in 28 successive months that same-month-to-same-month posting activity declined. Now, this is definitely welcomed news, but even it does not warrant a happy dance. I will be looking for declines for six months in a row for the long-term trend to truly change."
"Texas Tied For Tops in Fortune 500 HQs" from Austin Business Journal
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2010/04/12/daily47.html?ed=2010-04-15&ana=e_du_pub
"Texas Metros Top Moved-To Cities" from Business Week
Four Texas metros were among the top ten most moved-to cities in 2009, according to U-Haul's annual National Migration Trend Report.
Houston received more people moving from more than 50 miles than any other city in the country.
San Antonio followed in fourth place and Austin in sixth.
Dallas was 15th in the rankings.
The report was gathered from over one million U-Haul truck transactions during a recent 12-month period. The ranking is not stated as a percentage of population and is not reflective of overall growth.
"Austin Among Top Hybrid Car-Buying Cities" from Austin Business Journal
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2010/04/12/daily66.html?ed=2010-04-16&ana=e_du_pub
** based on Freddie Mac weekly average survey **
30-yr Fixed - Lower
Last Week: 5.07%
Previous Week: 5.21%
1yr Ago: 4.82%
15-yr Fixed - Lower
Last Week: 4.40%
Previous Week: 4.52%
1yr Ago: 4.48%
Jumbo Fixed (Average 30-yr Fixed)
Last Week: 5.50%
Previous Week: 5.50%
Highlight of Last Week's Major Economic Reports
The Federal Reserve continues to report that economic activity "increased somewhat" in 11 of the 12 districts with "some hiring activity" and inflation pressures "generally remained level" and "manufacturing activity increased." These conditions are supportive of the ongoing economic recovery, but one that still has not gained full steam.
Some good news include March's Retail Sales report, which reflected a 1.6% increase - surpassing all expectations. Some of the boost we've recently started to see in Retail Sales could be attributed to prices remaining overall flat. The Consumer Price Index, for one, didn't budge last month and has risen only 1.2% over the past year. This shows that - outside of food and energy prices - consumers are paying prices that are fairly close to what they did last year.
On the housing front, New Housing Starts rose by 1.6% last month, providing the best three-month run we've seen since August-October 2008. Not surprisingly, builders are starting to feel a bit more optimistic about what the next few months will have in store.
What to Look for This Week
The latest Home Sales figures will be the focal point of the week, as we all gather to see what last-minute flurry the soon-to-expire homebuyer tax credit will impose on the housing market. Will it or won't it? That's the question many are asking with regards to whether the tax credit will be extended or not.
Of other significance will be the Producer Price Index to highlight the most recent inflation trends.
Short-Term Rate Outlook
Relatively Stable
Stay Informed: What's in the News
"Austin Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.1%, Adds 4,600 Jobs" from Austin Business Journal
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2010/04/12/daily58.html?ed=2010-04-16&ana=e_du_pub
"Americans More Optimistic about the Economy, Says Poll" from CNN
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday morning indicates that 19 percent of the public now says that an economic recovery is underway.
"While that's not a great number, it's significantly higher than the 12 percent who felt that way in January," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Thirty-four percent of people questioned in the poll says the economy is still in a downturn, but that's dropped five points from the 39 percent who felt that way at the start of the year.
According to the survey, nearly half the public says that a recovery has not started but that conditions have stabilized. The 46 percent who said the economy's stabilized is down three points from January.
"Austin Foreclosure Filings Down, Market Expert Cautious" from Texas A&M Real Estate Center / Foreclosure Listing Service, Inc.
Foreclosure filings in the Austin area fell 22 percent over the past month, dropping from 1,451 to 1,139, according to Foreclosure Listing Service Inc. (FLS).
"This decline is welcomed news, but I must warn that one month's activity does not change a long-established trend," said George Roddy Sr., FLS president. "Foreclosure postings have been on the high end for some time now. In fact, for the past 16 consecutive months, posting activity has topped 1,000 each month in the Austin metro."
Roddy added that Uncle Sam might have played a role in the drop in filings.
"In six of the last ten years, Travis County foreclosure posting activity for May has been less than in April," he said. "I suspect that as some families have received an IRS tax refund, they have applied that toward their delinquent mortgages to save their homes."
Roddy said a more important factor to watch than month-to-month activity is the same month comparison from one year to the next.
"Over the last year, May's foreclosure posting activity in the Austin Metro dropped 11 percent," he said. "This was the first time in 28 successive months that same-month-to-same-month posting activity declined. Now, this is definitely welcomed news, but even it does not warrant a happy dance. I will be looking for declines for six months in a row for the long-term trend to truly change."
"Texas Tied For Tops in Fortune 500 HQs" from Austin Business Journal
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2010/04/12/daily47.html?ed=2010-04-15&ana=e_du_pub
"Texas Metros Top Moved-To Cities" from Business Week
Four Texas metros were among the top ten most moved-to cities in 2009, according to U-Haul's annual National Migration Trend Report.
Houston received more people moving from more than 50 miles than any other city in the country.
San Antonio followed in fourth place and Austin in sixth.
Dallas was 15th in the rankings.
The report was gathered from over one million U-Haul truck transactions during a recent 12-month period. The ranking is not stated as a percentage of population and is not reflective of overall growth.
"Austin Among Top Hybrid Car-Buying Cities" from Austin Business Journal
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2010/04/12/daily66.html?ed=2010-04-16&ana=e_du_pub